Economists generally predict GDP growth this year, "Paul nine look ten"
The arrival of the annual forecast quarter, and the end of 2008 economists views on China's economic prospects to differ materially different from this year's forecast to see more consistency. But behind the GDP growth, "Paul Wang nine ten", but also hidden unpredictable danger. Macroeconomic policies on how to suppress both prospectively credit growth, asset bubbles and inflation pressures to resolve, but also to better maintain good momentum of economic stabilization and recovery has become a common theme weekends major forum.
CITIC Securities chief economist Zhu Jian Fang believes that this year's GDP to rise compared to last year, will have a larger prediction of up to 10.1%.
And jianfang same optimistic economists unusual. "GDP growth in 2010 will reach 9% -10%." Institute of Finance, the State Council Development Research Center, deputy director of Ba on a "fund of funds" Fortune ABC yesterday the UN forum co-sponsored by Franklin Templeton Sealand Fund predicted that.
Economic Forecast Department of the State Information Center Zhu Baoliang, chief economist also believes that in the case of the international economic environment has improved, the existing domestic policy orientation remained unchanged in 2010, China's economic growth is expected to remain at around 8.5%.
And Tsinghua University, China and the World Economy Research Center, the Center for Economic Development, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology on Saturday jointly issued the "2010 China Macroeconomic Forecast and Analysis," pointed out a trend from high to low GDP growth in 2010 will be presented in the first half growth rate of over 9%, and then gradually decline, the year 2010 is expected to be 8.7%.
Compared with other countries in the world economy is expected that in 2010 China will undoubtedly continue to be a bright spot in the world economy. IMF's latest forecast shows that in 2010 the global economy will grow by 3.1%, which will grow 1.3 percent in developed countries, emerging economies and developing countries will grow by 5.1%.
However, behind the collective optimism have worries.
Fan Gang, central bank monetary policy committee of China's economy in the first annual meeting held on Sunday stressed that in the next boom, China's macroeconomic policy should be concerned about the risk of inflation, but also pay attention to the risk of asset bubbles. Fang Xinghai, director of Shanghai Financial Services Office, said that China's biggest task this year is to control inflation expectations.
Most experts believe that the price index (CPI) in November last year after bottoming out positive, 2009 may end in a negative growth of 0.5%, while the increase in the CPI in 2010 will reach about 3% -5%, with currency inflation risks a significant increase in the amount invested is gradually accumulate. The rising prices, has become the biggest asset bubble characterization.
In fact, the domestic macroeconomic policy "fine-tuning" has been the response to these potential risks.
12 evening, the central bank surprised the market is expected to be large financial institutions deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, to lock in the banking system of nearly 300 billion yuan of liquidity. Before that, the central bank has 14 consecutive weeks of net return of funds from the banking system through open market operations, totaled 953 billion yuan. Meanwhile, the central counting rate can be interpreted to break up the market as policy tightening signals. Against high prices, the State Council recently issued "on the promotion of stable and healthy development of the real estate market notification."
"Fine-tuning of policy reversals and capital markets see-saw, will occupy most of the time in 2010." Ba said.
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