Xugong: Performance revised in line with our expectations
Corrected results with our previous forecast exactly. According to the amendment after full year net profit of 1.732 billion yuan, the company achieved in 2009 EPS was 2.00 yuan, fully consistent with our previous expectations. For the results of the company to make two points Description: The fourth quarter of the domestic construction machinery market demand than expected, the company expects sales growth in revenue over; company further optimize the structure of product sales, compared with gross profit margin is expected to increase.
"Brisk sales season" is the performance of the company can be the main reason for the rapid growth. From January to September 2009, the company achieved net profit of 1.307 billion yuan, then the fourth quarter, the company achieved net profit of 425 million yuan, 424 million yuan in 2009 with a 7-9 month, essentially flat. According to the traditional characteristics of the construction machinery industry sales, fourth-quarter sales annually the most plain, but in 2009 at the National 4 trillion investment and other economic initiatives, driven by China's macroeconomic quickly bottomed out, the confidence of private capital would be enhanced, 2009 in the second half, as the representative of the real estate private capital to start promoting the construction machinery industry continued to be active, "off-season strong sales" as a major factor in the construction machinery line performance of the company as well as to achieve sustained growth.
2010 for the regulation of the real estate market will not have much impact on the company. As a major downstream market of construction machinery industry, the rise and fall of the real estate market tends to impact on the industry can not be underestimated, the recent real estate market malaise for the construction machinery industry sector is also a certain repression. We believe that the market's reaction excessive suspicion, the recent state of the real estate market regulation will not have a significant impact on the construction machinery industry. There are three reasons: First, the national real estate market just regulation, rather than suppress, the purpose of the regulation is to focus on long-term health of the real estate industry and the development of macroeconomic stability; currently the main problem is the lack of supply of the real estate market, which led to a new real estate projects investment increase, in addition, the country is too speculative to combat the real estate market, and will continue to increase the intensity of ordinary housing supply, investment in new projects will undoubtedly increase the strength of a strong growing demand for construction machinery industry; last inertia into infrastructure investment will still form a stable demand for construction machinery industry.
The above analysis, we are still optimistic about the domestic demand for construction machinery industry.
In 2010, the construction machinery industry exports are expected to bring "surprises." With the improvement in the external economic recovery and China's export situation, as the competitiveness of China's export products more prominent in the construction machinery industry in 2010, exports have reason to significant recovery. XCMG crane exports, is expected to resume growth.
In 2009, the company achieved the overall market, the future will bring better management to improve the efficiency of profitability.
Recently approved a private placement program is beneficial to the company consolidate competitive advantage, as a world class business and lay a solid foundation. Without considering the private placement, we maintain the company's performance forecast: 2009-2011 the company expects EPS were 2.00 yuan, 2.38 yuan and 2.96 yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE 17 times, 14 times and 12 times. Other listed company corresponds to the construction machinery industry, the company's valuation is very obvious advantages, we continue to maintain a "recommended" rating.
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